Crestwood Advisors' $5.94B Mega-Cap Book and Mount Lucas's 11% Value-Factor Conviction Anchor a Light 13F-HR Tape

Executive Summary

As of May 5, 2026, The 13F Tracker Desk processed 30 Form 13F-HR filings on the SEC EDGAR settlement window — but only three carried populated holdings tables, with the remaining 27 reporting zero positions (likely initial Form 13F registrations, advisor entity setups, or amendments awaiting refiling). The signal-to-noise ratio is therefore concentrated in three filers reporting Q1 2026 positions: Crestwood Advisors Group, LLC ($5.94B AUM), Mount Lucas Management LP ($270.8M AUM), and Providence First Trust Co ($284.4M AUM). With the broader institutional flow narrative thin on this tape, our read centers on the small but unusually disciplined positioning at Mount Lucas, where a single value-factor ETF stake sits at 11% of book — a concentration level that crosses our extreme-conviction threshold.

We flagged the most consequential filing of the day at Crestwood Advisors (SEC EDGAR accession 0001426853-26-000002), whose 869-position book reads as a textbook large-cap-growth-tilt RIA portfolio: Apple Inc. (AAPL) at $353.0M (5.94% of portfolio) leads, followed by the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at $284.0M (4.78%), Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) at $208.9M (3.51%), Microsoft (MSFT) at $198.0M (3.33%), NVIDIA (NVDA) at $178.2M (3.00%), and Amazon (AMZN) at $172.1M (2.90%). With the two Alphabet share classes combined the position lifts to ~5.18% of book — placing GOOGL/GOOG ahead of Microsoft and within striking distance of Apple. Crestwood's reported sector allocation is 22.7% Technology against a 67.4% "Other" bucket dominated by passive index/bond ETFs (IVV, AGG, AFLG-tagged value ETF), confirming the firm's positioning as a hybrid index-core / single-stock-satellite wealth manager rather than an active hedge fund.

Mount Lucas Management's filing (SEC EDGAR accession 0001140361-26-019022) is the more interesting tape from a flow-research standpoint. The Newtown, Pennsylvania-based managed-futures shop — long known for its Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index (MLM Index) and trend-following programs — disclosed an equity sleeve led by the Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) at $29.9M (11.05% of book), the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) at $19.2M (7.09%), and direct positions in Adobe Inc. (ADBE, $8.5M / 3.14%), Intel Corp. (INTC, $5.5M / 2.04%), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS, $4.2M / 1.53%), and Rocket Companies Inc. Class A (RKT, $4.1M / 1.53%). The combination — value factor overweight, EM Brazil overweight, and four contrarian single-stock picks (turnaround Intel, AI-disrupted Adobe, AI-infrastructure pure-play Nebius, rate-sensitive mortgage originator Rocket) — reads as a deliberately anti-consensus equity book at a moment when the S&P 500 sits near 7,200 and the VIX has compressed to 16.99.

Providence First Trust Co (SEC EDGAR accession 0001713735-26-000004) rounds out the populated tape with what amounts to a fixed-income-heavy model portfolio — PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT) at 6.63%, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) at 5.39%, SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF (FLRN) at 5.34%, iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) at 5.14%, and the only equity exposure of note via the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) at 2.28% — a capital-preservation-style allocation overlay rather than an active equity book. Today's top signals: (1) Crestwood Advisors — $353M in AAPL, single-largest reported holding on tape; (2) Mount Lucas — 11.05% Pure Value ETF concentration, our highest single-position conviction read of the week; (3) Mount Lucas — 7.09% MSCI Brazil overweight, an unusually large EM tilt in a U.S. managed-futures manager; (4) Crestwood — combined Alphabet (Class A + C) at $308M / 5.18%, exceeding Microsoft; (5) Providence First Trust — 25%+ aggregate concentration in floating-rate / short-duration bond ETFs, a defensive duration positioning. We caveat: 13F filings reflect quarter-end snapshots and lag actual portfolio composition by up to 45 days.

Today In Numbers

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Notable Filer Deep Dives

Crestwood Advisors Group, LLC — $5.94B AUM

• Filing: 13F-HR, filed 2026-05-05, reporting Q1 2026 positions, SEC EDGAR accession 0001426853-26-000002. Filing index: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1426853/000142685326000002/
• Portfolio summary: 869 total positions, $5.94B AUM. Top 5 holdings (Apple 5.94%, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 4.78%, Alphabet Class A 3.51%, Microsoft 3.33%, NVIDIA 3.00%) account for 20.6% of the book.
• Top 10 holdings table:

Rank	Company (Ticker)	Shares	Value ($M)	% of Portfolio

|---|---|---|---|---|

• What changed: No prior-quarter Crestwood 13F in our current batch — quarter-over-quarter delta analysis will populate in subsequent editions. Combined Alphabet (GOOGL + GOOG) at $308.0M / 5.18% materially exceeds disclosed Microsoft stake.
• Sector allocation: Technology 22.7%, Other (passive ETFs / bond funds / unclassified) 67.4%, Consumer 3.3%, Financials 3.0%, Healthcare 2.5%, Energy 0.7%, Communications 0.3%, Automotive 0.16%.
• The signal: A high-conviction mega-cap technology overlay built on a passive index-and-bond core. The Magnificent Seven names (excluding Meta and Tesla) sum to ~20.4% of the book when both Alphabet share classes are combined. The Applied Finance Valuation Large Cap ETF (AFLG) at #7 signals a paired systematic value sleeve — a barbell structure of mega-cap growth + quantitative value that has worked through the 2024-2026 large-cap regime.

Mount Lucas Management LP — $270.8M AUM

• Filing: 13F-HR, filed 2026-05-05, reporting Q1 2026 positions, SEC EDGAR accession 0001140361-26-019022. Filing index: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1185072/000114036126019022/
• Portfolio summary: 167 total positions, $270.8M AUM. Top 5 (RPV 11.05%, EWZ 7.09%, ADBE 3.14%, INTC 2.04%, SHY 1.91%) sum to 25.2% of book.
• Top 10 holdings table:

Rank	Company (Ticker)	Shares	Value ($M)	% of Portfolio

|---|---|---|---|---|

• What changed: No prior-quarter Mount Lucas 13F in this batch. The 11.05% RPV concentration plus four contrarian single-stock picks are flagged for next-quarter persistence-check.
• Sector allocation: Other 89.4%, Technology 5.18%, Communications 1.97%, Financials 1.43%, Automotive 1.18%, Healthcare 0.86%.
• The signal: A deliberately contrarian factor portfolio. The 11.05% RPV stake (Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value, zero overlap with Pure Growth) sits alongside a 7.09% Brazil EM allocation and four single-stock satellites in AI-disrupted (ADBE), turnaround (INTC), AI-infrastructure (NBIS), and rate-sensitive (RKT) names. This reads as a value-factor + idiosyncratic-alpha barbell at a managed-futures shop — not the firm's primary alpha engine, but a deliberately anti-consensus equity overlay.

Providence First Trust Co — $284.4M AUM

• Filing: 13F-HR, filed 2026-05-05, reporting Q1 2026 positions, SEC EDGAR accession 0001713735-26-000004. Filing index: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713735/000171373526000004/
• Portfolio summary: 179 total positions, $284.4M AUM. Top 5 (MINT 6.63%, AGG 5.39%, FLRN 5.34%, LQD 5.14%, VCSH 3.93%) sum to 26.4% of book — concentration in fixed-income ETFs rather than equities.
• Top 10 holdings table:

Rank	Company (Ticker)	Shares	Value ($M)	% of Portfolio

|---|---|---|---|---|

• What changed: No prior-quarter comparison available in this batch.
• Sector allocation: Other 90.3%, Technology 5.30% (XLK-driven), Financials 1.23%, Healthcare 1.20%, Consumer 0.85%, Automotive 0.56%, Energy 0.41%, Communications 0.17%.
• The signal: The canonical defensive trust-account model — short-duration bond proxies (MINT, VCSH, ISTB) with floating-rate hedge (FLRN), an investment-grade core (AGG, LQD), and minimal equity beta via XLK and EFA. No single-stock equity, no high-yield, no commodity. Asset-allocation engineering, not active alpha.

Sector Flow Analysis

Aggregating across the three populated filings, the dollar-weighted sector profile is:

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With only three populated filings, sector-flow inference is inherently noisy. The aggregate looks heavily skewed to "Other" because Crestwood and Providence both run large passive-ETF and bond-fund cores — those holdings inflate the bucket without representing active conviction. The cleaner read is on Technology: across three independent filers, Technology aggregates to $1.38B, with Crestwood alone contributing $1.35B. The 22.7% Crestwood Tech weighting comes overwhelmingly from the AAPL/MSFT/NVDA/GOOGL/GOOG/AMZN single-stock complex — a posture we read as continued mega-cap conviction at a quarter when the S&P 500 sits ~7,200 and the AI-capex re-rating is still being digested. Healthcare ($152M), Financials ($183M), and Energy ($45M) registered as cyclical-light across all three filers, consistent with the broader RIA pattern of cyclical underweight in late-cycle environments. We do not interpret today's three-filing tape as signal-quality sector rotation — but we will track in subsequent editions whether Mount Lucas's value-factor overweight propagates into a broader value-rotation theme across other notable filers.

Activist And Concentration Watch

We screen every populated 13F against three triggers: (a) any single position >10% of portfolio (extreme conviction), (b) any new position >$100M (major capital deployment), and (c) any filing from a known activist manager. Today's tape produced one trigger and zero known-activist filings.

Trigger 1 — Mount Lucas Management LP, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) at 11.05% of portfolio. This is the highest single-position concentration in our 30-filing batch and crosses our 10% threshold. RPV at $29.9M is 56% larger than Mount Lucas's #2 position (EWZ Brazil at $19.2M / 7.09%) and nearly four times its third-largest (Adobe at $8.5M / 3.14%). Mechanically, this is a deliberate factor overweight — RPV holds the deep-value half of the S&P 500 (utilities, financials, energy, select industrials) at fundamentally screened weights with zero overlap to S&P 500 Pure Growth (RPG). Historical parallel: AQR Capital Management's value-revival research from 2019-2022 (Asness et al.) made a similar factor case after a decade of growth dominance, and the value factor recovered ~15-20% relative outperformance against growth from late 2021 through mid-2023 before reversing. Our desk view: an 11% factor-ETF allocation at a U.S. managed-futures shop suggests the firm's quantitative process is signaling that S&P 500 internal dispersion (growth-vs-value spread) is at a level that historically precedes mean reversion. We will watch whether this position scales further or rolls off in the Q2 2026 filing — managed-futures trend models can both initiate and unwind factor exposures within a single quarter.

No new positions >$100M flagged. While Crestwood Advisors discloses several positions above $100M (AAPL $353M, IVV $284M, GOOGL $209M, MSFT $198M, NVDA $178M, AMZN $172M, AFLG $118M, AGG $113M), we have no prior-quarter Crestwood 13F in this batch to test whether any are net-new initiations versus increased holdings. Once a Q4 2025 comparison enters our archive, we will re-test for true >$100M new-position deployment.

13D/13G cross-reference: none triggered today. No filer in today's batch reported a single-issuer position large enough to push past 5% of an issuer's outstanding shares.

Known activists: zero filings today. None of Icahn Enterprises, Pershing Square, Elliott Management, Starboard Value, Trian Fund Management, ValueAct Capital, Engine No. 1, or JANA Partners appeared on today's 30-filing window. The only non-U.S. notable shop on the tape — Yong Rong (HK) Asset Management Ltd — filed a zero-holdings entry that we read as a procedural amendment.

Contrarian Signals

Mount Lucas Management's individual stock picks are the contrarian highlights of the tape. We flag four single-stock positions where the institutional action runs counter to current market consensus:

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — $8.5M / 3.14% of Mount Lucas book. Adobe's stock has been pressured throughout 2025 and into Q1 2026 on persistent investor concern that generative-AI image and video tools (OpenAI Sora, Runway, Midjourney, Google Gemini image) are eroding Creative Cloud's economic moat. Bull case: Adobe Firefly's enterprise integration and Substance/3D portfolio remain category-leading; sell-side consensus retains an aggregate-positive rating with mid-teens revenue growth in FY2026 estimates. Bear case: structural margin compression as enterprise customers consolidate creative-software spend; Figma acquisition fallout still unresolved. We present the divergence without taking sides — Mount Lucas's allocation suggests its quantitative or fundamental process scores ADBE as cheap on a value-factor basis.

Intel Corp. (INTC) — $5.5M / 2.04% of Mount Lucas book. Intel remains in the middle innings of a multi-year fab build-out and foundry strategy under post-Gelsinger leadership. Bull case: Intel 18A node shipping for internal Panther Lake and external foundry customers; Apollo / Brookfield infrastructure capital de-risked the Arizona and Ohio fabs. Bear case: foundry adoption from external customers remains slower than internal expectations; data-center share continues to leak to AMD (EPYC) and to NVIDIA's Grace Hopper / Grace Blackwell platforms. Mount Lucas's $5.5M long is a contrarian read against a sell-side neutral-to-bearish consensus.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) — $4.2M / 1.53% of Mount Lucas book. Nebius is the post-Yandex spinoff that retained the European and U.S. cloud and AI-infrastructure assets. Bull case: pure-play AI-compute exposure outside the U.S. hyperscaler complex; capacity build-out in Finland and the Netherlands provides Tier-1 European AI training infrastructure. Bear case: balance-sheet leverage from buildout; legal/IP overhang from the Yandex separation. The 1.53% Mount Lucas position is small but unusual for a U.S.-focused managed-futures shop — read as a deliberate AI-capex satellite.

Rocket Companies Inc. Cl A (RKT) — $4.1M / 1.53% of Mount Lucas book. Rocket is a direct-to-consumer mortgage originator highly leveraged to the U.S. mortgage-rate cycle. With the Federal Funds Rate at 3.64% as of 2026-05-01 and the 10Y-2Y spread compressed to 0.50%, mortgage spreads remain wider than pre-2022 norms. Bull case: any further easing cycle from the Fed could re-ignite refinance volumes; Rocket's data-and-AI underwriting platform has been re-platformed onto a more cost-efficient stack. Bear case: secular headwinds from purchase-mortgage demand softness; competitive pressure from non-bank originators. Mount Lucas's RKT long is a duration / rate-cycle bet rather than a growth bet.

Smart-money divergence note: With only three populated filings on today's tape, we cannot identify intra-batch divergence (where two notable funds take opposite sides of the same stock). We will revisit this lens once a wider set of notable filers has reported in the Q1 2026 filing season.

What To Watch This Week

1. CRITICAL — FOMC May 2026 meeting and SEP update. The next Federal Reserve policy decision will set the directional tone for both the 10Y-2Y spread (currently 0.50%) and rate-sensitive equity positioning, including Mount Lucas's RKT and Treasury-laddered Providence First Trust holdings. A dovish surprise would steepen the curve and benefit Mount Lucas's RKT bet; a hawkish hold would compress the curve further and pressure long-duration bond ETFs (VCLT, VGIT) in Providence's book.

2. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — fiscal Q2 2026 earnings (mid-June expected). Adobe's June quarter print will be the next stress test for Mount Lucas's contrarian ADBE long. Watch Digital Media ARR growth, Firefly enterprise traction, and any commentary on AI-generative-tools competitive impact.

3. Intel Corp. (INTC) — Q2 2026 earnings (late July expected). Intel's Q2 print will report on early Intel 18A revenue contribution and external foundry customer momentum. Mount Lucas's $5.5M position is small but tests the value-factor thesis on the most controversial semiconductor turnaround.

4. Brazil COPOM monetary policy decision. The Banco Central do Brasil's next Selic rate decision impacts the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which represents 7.09% of Mount Lucas's book. A continued easing path supports EM equity multiples; a hawkish surprise on inflation could pressure EWZ.

5. Q1 2026 earnings — Crestwood Advisors top names. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL/GOOG, and V have all reported or are reporting Q1 2026 within May. Aggregate Magnificent-Six results will mark-to-market roughly 20% of Crestwood's book in real time, providing a forward read on whether the RIA's Q1 positioning held into Q2.

6. U.S. Treasury auctions — 7-year and 10-year notes. Treasury auction stop-out yields and bid-to-cover ratios in May 2026 will influence intermediate-Treasury-ETF pricing — directly affecting Mount Lucas's SHY/IEI/IEF ladder and Providence's VGIT exposure.

7. MSCI semi-annual index review (May 2026). Any reweighting in MSCI EAFE (held by Providence at 2.09%) or MSCI Emerging Markets (Brazil-relevant for Mount Lucas's EWZ) would produce systematic flow effects. Watch the MSCI press release for confirmed effective dates.

Bottom Line

The institutional money is lightly distributed today, with a high-quality-but-narrow signal set: three populated filings out of 30 produce a single dominant takeaway — Mount Lucas Management's deliberate value-factor and EM-Brazil overweight at 11% and 7% concentrations respectively, paired with four contrarian single-stock picks (ADBE, INTC, NBIS, RKT) — and one large-but-unsurprising mega-cap-growth-tilt RIA (Crestwood Advisors at $5.94B with AAPL leading at 5.94% of book). The dominant theme is bifurcation: passive RIA cores piling further into Apple-Microsoft-Google-Amazon-NVIDIA, while a smaller, smarter-money-adjacent managed-futures shop is positioning for value-factor mean reversion and rate-cycle contrarian exposure. The biggest surprise: a U.S. managed-futures manager allocating 7%+ of disclosed equity book to a single-country EM ETF (EWZ Brazil) — a positioning that, if it scales, would qualify as a real EM rotation signal. The #1 filing a portfolio manager should read in full today: Mount Lucas Management LP's 13F-HR (SEC EDGAR accession 0001140361-26-019022), where the 11.05% RPV and 7.09% EWZ concentrations, plus the four contrarian single-stock satellites, represent the only differentiated alpha-conviction signal on today's tape. We caveat all calls with the standard 13F-Tracker disclaimer: Form 13F filings report positions as of quarter-end, so portfolio composition as of May 5, 2026 may differ materially from the holdings disclosed today.